Ten Christmas Gifts A Meteorologist Couldn’t Refuse

Ever wonder what a meteorologist or a weather enthusiast would want for Christmas?  Well I devised a little list for anyone thinking about purchasing a gift for a weatherman, HINT HINT ;) .  ENJOY!

• Autograph picture of Tom Skilling and Jim Cantore

• A freaking weather radio, DUH!

• Video clip of Reed Timmer getting swept up by a tornado

• A dog that can predict the weather

• Their very own Doppler radar

• The movie, Twister

• Indoor/Outdoor Weather Station

• A Free Year of the Internet! (How can we forecast without it)

• Tornado in a Bottle Kit

• The Weather Channel T-Shirt

Unpredictable Wisconsin or Warm California for X-Mas? I know which I prefer.

    I think it is safe to say most of Wisconsin will not see a white Christmas this coming year.  It’s the first year that I have been part of a non-white Christmas since I was a kid.  But if you are living outside the Midwest, what’s it like to have a grassy, green, and warm Christmas?  If you had to make a choice what would it be, Wisconsin or California for Christmas? 

    California.  Beaches, ocean, mountains, cities, people, people, and did I mention people?  One of the largest states, the most populated, and an economy that could keep up with most countries in the world.  What about its geography, ecology, and weather?  Diverse. But what most people think of when California is mentioned is the warm weather---Los Angeles, San Diego, Newport Beach, etc.  Therefore, could you really tolerate a California Christmas?  Average high temperature in Los Angeles in December is approximately 70 F and San Diego is especially close near 66 F.  No way in winter hell could you get any winter cheer from me in that state.  I would have to flee to the mountains in order to get my Christmas spirit.  Sure, if I grew up in that type of atmosphere it would be second nature to me, but growing up as a Midwestern I need me some cold weather and snow. 

    What isn’t there to like about Wisconsin?  Four seasons, varied wildlife, great sports, and friendly people.  One of the best qualities this state can offer is its weather.  Unpredictability is really something we have become accustom to here in Wisconsin and that is why Wisconsin Christmas’s are the best.  I mentioned before, I do not remember the last time I have not had a white Christmas, and it looks like that is in the future for us.  Christmas in Wisconsin can bring us snow, snowstorms, ice, average temperatures, record temperatures, no snow, etc.  Every year seems to be a little bit different.  Not only does this go for northern Wisconsin but this is good for eastern, western, and southern Wisconsin.  Usually if Milwaukee has a white Christmas, so does Madison and Green Bay.  Some years Green Bay will have snow but Milwaukee and Madison won’t.   Anyways, this year brings us a taste of a California Christmas: above average temperatures, different weather patterns, most of the snowstorms have gone west and south of Wisconsin, etc.  With all of these different types of weather, how can you not enjoy Wisconsin for Christmas?

    Warm tropical temperatures versus unpredictability.  Great traditions versus California.   No matter what the weather is, I know where I prefer to be --- here in Wisconsin for Christmas.  But if you want a touch of both worlds for the holiday, head down to Pasadena for a little Badger love.

Say it Ain’t So, Is That Really Snow on the Ground?

    If you had a chance to look outside on your front porch or lawn this morning you got a pleasant surprise, SNOW!  I also had to pinch myself thinking I was in a dream --- FINALLY some snow.

    A weak disturbance that brought a fair amount of lift to the atmosphere propagated a few snowflakes for southern Wisconsin late last night into this morning.   Most of the accumulation was minimal ---- outside by my house in Shorewood, I’d say we saw close to ½” to ¾” of snow.  But for the most part ½”-1” of snow fell in southeastern Wisconsin.  Higher amounts were associated with a band west and southwest of Madison where they say as much as 3” of snow.

    We could see a few lingering snow showers or flurries this morning in southern Wisconsin.  Eventually, sometime late this morning, that weak system will move off to the east and another weak system will give us another potential round of light snow.   The system will be much weaker and no accumulation is expected.

    Therefore, do not be shocked when you do head outside and see a few small layers of the light and fluffy stuff, that really is snow on the ground! 

Today in Weather History --- Remembering Super Typhoon Paka and Its Path Through Guam

It is a day that everyone in Guam will remember forever.  December 16th, 1997 a catastrophic category 5 “super typhoon”  ripped through the U.S. island territory of Guam bringing along with it sustained winds of 150 mph and had a peak unofficial gust of 237 mph (That 237 mph wind gust was considered the strongest wind ever recorded until a few years ago when it was deemed unreliable) .  The storm dropped nearly 21 inches of rain before the eye of the storm could even reach the coastline making this storm truly unbelievable.

    Paka was a very rare storm formed outside the usual window of tropical storms in the Pacific.  It started out as an area of disturbance southwest of Hawaii, which can be very typical during a strong El Nino year and was eventually formed into the powerful typhoon.  The systems surface pressure sat at a very strong 932 mb and upper level winds were very minimal helping to increase its chances of strengthening.  

    When the storm was all said and done in Guam, the devastation was appalling.  The storm destroyed well over 1,000 homes and buildings and 10,000 were partially damaged.  It left thousands homeless and over $200 million dollars in damage was reported.  Due to the tremendous impact and damage to the region, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center decided to retire the name Paka from the typhoon naming list.  What a day in history!

What the Hell is Thundersnow?

    I remember last year during a snowstorm here in Milwaukee I saw a burst of light coming from the window.  It was so uncanny I actually got up out of my chair during Sportscenter to see what it was --- heck I figured it was someone flashing a light into the window, maybe a car or snow plow some how flashing its lights eight stories up to our apartment, or perhaps it was some type of UFO deciding to come and pick on “me-lady and I”.   To my astonishment, and well perhaps a quick look in my shorts could tell you what I’m about to tell you, IT WAS LIGHTING and THUNDER!

    So it is winter and we have a nice little snowstorm on our hands and we now have to deal with some thunderstorms --- you might ask how is that possible?   This is a phenomenon relatively new to the meteorology world called thundersnow.   In layman’s terms, thundersnow is a thunderstorm causing snow instead of the predictable rain feature associated with most storms.

    It is a really an extraordinary and rare thing to see and to be quite honest I’ve only seen it a few times in my young lifetime.  You need a couple of weather ingredients to come together in order for this to happen --- strong instability, a lifting mechanism, and an abundance of moisture.   Creating instability in the winter is a very difficult thing to do considering instability can be thought of an air parcel and its ability to rise in the atmosphere from its original position.  For that parcel to rise (a lifting mechanism), you need some sort of lift which leads to either a change in temperature, a frontal system, a large difference in temperatures, etc.  In order for thundersnow to occur, the air at the surface has to be warmer than the air above but not warm enough in order for the snow to melt when falling from the clouds.  Now do you understand why thundersnow isn’t an everyday thing?

    In some incidents, thunderstorms can develop in warmer areas and move off to an area where there is still moisture and potential to create thunderstorms but the temperatures drop just enough in order for the rain to convert to snow creating these new “thundersnow“ storms.  Snowfall rates tend to be higher in areas of thundersnow where it would not be unusual to see an inch or two per hour.

    Now you can go tell your friends you know what thundersnow is and they can ask you, “what the hell is thundersnow”?

Wet, Wild, and WARM!

    I was driving around the Milwaukee area yesterday and it dawned on me, it seriously feels like Spring.  In bigger cities after the snow thaws you typically see trash all along the roads/highways, a brownish stain to the grass, people walking aimlessly in athletic shorts while sporting still winter clothes, etc. --- and with the damp, little warm-up we had from the weekend, it really felt like it.  I’m SERIOUS…okay I guess I’m getting a little ahead of myself.

    Luckily, we have a Spring type system on our hands for today as a area of low pressure centralized in the Midwest heads our way today bringing us a chance of…of…RAIN!  If the title wasn’t “wet, wild, and warm” I bet you would have thought I was ready to say the S word.  Actually, this storm system will bring us a lot of rain for Wednesday and in some areas we could see as much as an 1”.  Now for you advocate snow-wanters, that would be almost 10” of the fluffy stuff.   No, no, no, no we do not have to get any snow gear out yet. 

    Heck, some areas will likely see a few imbedded thunderstorms but don’t expect any type of strong to severe storms.  Thunder in December??  I love Wisconsin!

    Along with that inch of rain and a few boomers we will see another significant warm-up where we likely will get into the 50s.  Most of the meteorologist in Milwaukee (or across the state) are not ready to put that on their forecast --- BUT I AM!  HAHA, I said it first (I actually wrote this Tuesday night)! I am staying put for a high of 50 F.  No higher! 

    So, for my early Christmas present to you I “present” a good wet, wild, and warm forecast for you!

Baseball, Weather, and a little Physics!~

    In the midst of the MLB winter meetings and the spirit of baseball thickly in the air, I thought this would be a great entry to make.

    If it wasn’t winter, I would go get my baseball bat (probably from little league) , a baseball, and I would fly out to Denver to prove that I could hit a baseball out at Coors Field.  Okay, maybe I am getting a bit ahead of myself considering I batted left handed all of my baseball career (keep in mind it was pretty short lasting through Babe Ruth) and I personally think I’m a righty hitter. But why don’t more major league players drool over the idea of playing for the Colorado Rockies --- I’ll tell you what, I would!

    Most people probably don’t know, except a few of you physics and baseball minded intellects, that a baseball actually flies farther at higher elevations.  They don’t call Denver, CO the “mile high” city for nothing.  I mean it makes sense right?  Less air, less pressure, less density the ball has to travel through which ultimately means the ball flying a little bit FARTHER then it normally would at regular elevation.  

    Heck, imagine some of those warm, humid June baseball nights you’d be able to play there. In those circumstances the ball would travel even FARTHER then it would say in early May.   When the air heats up, the air density actually decreases helping the trajectory of that ball stay up in the sky a little bit longer.  And we haven’t even mentioned humility factor.  Humid air is less dense then dry air so that means when the ball is hit in humid weather it would go travel even FARTHER!

    When you take all those factors into play, the ball actually travels about 10% farther at locations like Coors Field then it would at a stadium at sea-level.  Booyah!  That’s what I would say after I put the sweet part of the bat on the ball at Coors Field.  Heck if I was lucky, I would get it out of the infield!  10% of 100 feet is………10 extra feet! Let’s not judge here cause I welcome any takers at a good old fashion home run derby. This could be fun --- but we’ll leave the fun to the professionals for now and I’ll continue flipping that weather coin!

    And on the Ryan Braun subject --- I believe he did not do PED’s but he’ll still be suspended…what does that  mean?  I don’t friggen know!

When was the last time IT WAS THIS COLD~?!

    We’ll have to go all the way back to last February the last time we saw really cold low temperatures. Put it this way, when I bring my dog out in the morning he usually takes his sweet ass time outside ---well he did his business and flew in the house this morning.  Heck, if it wasn’t so cold out I might have had an accident from pure shock of him coming in so quick.

   ANYWAYS, most areas in Wisconsin Saturday morning woke up and saw there first single digit lows of the season (in specific southern Wisconsin).  Milwaukee saw a low of 9 F and places up in Beaver Dam and Reedsburg, WI saw temps anywhere from 5-8 F.  Per the National Weather Service, “The last time minimum temperatures dipped into the single digits occurred on February 11, 2011 and February 27, 2011 for the Milwaukee and Madison areas, respectively”.

      Thankfully, things will be warming back up to above normal and we’ll see highs around 40 F through Tuesday.   We might have a big surprise for you come mid-week, STAY TUNED!

EnJoY --- It’ll be the last time you see this UNTIL April 2014!

    Who doesn’t like a little Mother Nature show?  If you are like ME hopefully you had a chance to head outside this morning to check out the lunar eclipse.  Well, if you were lazy or if it was your only available day to sleep in, you won’t be able to see another FULL lunar eclipse until April of 2014.

    For those of you who forgot what a lunar eclipse is --- it is when the moon passes behind Earth so that the Earth blocks the rays from the sun.  I highly recommend them, they are pretty darn cool!

Please Tell Me this Is A Joke! ---Where is all the SNOW?

 
    I’m beginning to wonder if people think this is a joke!  It is December 9th and we have yet to see a significant snow storm (or really any accumulating snow) here in the Badger State.  For most of you, this is probably very enjoyable!  But for others they want to get those snow blowers a test and their snowmobiles a ride!

    In Milwaukee, by early December (on average) we have our first snowfall of over 1” and the same with Madison where typically we see this November 18th.   Green Bay has there first snowfall a little bit earlier then Madison.  But nonetheless, remember it is already the 9th of December and no snow! 

    When will we see a snowstorm?  According to a few Numerical Models put together by the National Weather Service, our next shot for snow will be next Thursday into Friday.  Now depending on the route of the storm we could see our first significant snowfall associated with a very strong low with a lot of precipitation to be had.  As of now, it looks most of southern Wisconsin will see rain to start and eventually changing over to snow.   We do have to keep in mind this storm is almost a week out and things could change dramatically by then.

    After next weeks storm, it looks very quiet until Christmas Eve where we could be shoveling ourselves out in order to get around for the holiday.   I would be okay with a little bit of snow for Santa to navigate through.  Let’s keep our fingers CROSSED!

 So if you are still waiting like me, just get the joke over with Mother Nature and let us see some snow!

2011 Wisconsin Tornado Season ends in Record Books!!!

 
    Tornadoes!  Almost everyone’s favorite weather related subject!  Wisconsin isn’t necessarily known for their severe weather but some years can change prospectives.  The 2011 severe weather season was a very active year for the state of Wisconsin, started out with a big bang, and ended as the 4th busiest tornado season on record.

    April 10th was the busiest Severe Weather day of the year in Wisconsin.  It all started out with a strong warm front that pushed northward into northern parts of the state.  Temperatures soared into the 80s, we had very unstable conditions, the right amount of wind sheer and CAPE (convective available potential energy), and a approaching cold front/low pressure area that helped generate thunderstorms by 3 pm.  Most of that State (excluding SE Wisconsin) were under Tornado Watches.   By days end there were 15 tornadoes, which set a new record for the most ever on a April day.  The strongest tornado was a EF-3 tornado near Merrill.

    The 38 tornadoes that touched down in the Badger State put this years total at number four all time for most tornadoes in a year, tying with the 2008 season.   Keep in mind that these tornadoes occurred on ten days: April 22nd, May 22nd, June 8th, June 19th, June 21st, July 1st, July 19th, August 8th, August 19th, and August 23rd.   Most of these tornadoes were on the weak side---13 EF-0’s and 17 EF-1’s.  Unfortunately, there was one fatality this year related to the tornadoes in Marinette County when an older gentleman’s oxygen machine shut down due to the loss of power.

    Now that we can safely say that the 2011 Tornado Season is over, what will 2012 have in store for us as we approach Spring?  All I know is we'll always be able to look back on the 2011 Tornado Season as a season to remember!

Coldest Weather of the Season Heading Our Way!!

    You thought Winter started because of a few snow showers and the arrival of Christmas music didn’t you?  False.  In other words, enjoy the next two days because the coldest weather of the season will wonder our way.

    A cold front will sweep across the area helping to drop temperatures well before normal.  This cold arctic air will drift into Wisconsin by mid week bringing nighttime lows into the teens, a few spots could see single digits.  By Thursday, the arctic air will plunge southward and Friday looks to be the coldest day of the week.  Milwaukee and Madison will be in the mid-20’s, Green Bay in the low-20’s, Eau Claire/La Crosse and Chicago in the mid-upper 20’s. 

    No significant precipitation is expected this week since we’ll have northwest winds and dry conditions --- lakeshore communities will see lake effect snow today and tomorrow.  Nothing more then an inch of snow will be expected in those areas. 

    Once we get through this cool spell this week, by early next week we’ll see a warming trend and temperatures again above normal for this time of the year.

Snow Track Changes, Still Full Force Ahead

    Let’s be honest here, it is December and in meteorology that means nightmares for predicting snowfall and tracking.  The last two days, the tracking storm set for this weekends arrival looked to make a bulleyes right in the middle part of the state encompassing Madison, Green Bay, and the Fox Valley BUT things have changed.  The scouting or I should just say straight up stalking of this storm I’ve been doing the past few days has put me in again another predicament --- stay with yesterday’s forecast or go with the new models that have changed everyday now?

    NAM and GFS numerical models are forecast models used to help determine conditions of weather for a particular day and give insight clues for meteorologist so they can accurately forecast for upcoming days.   Both NAM and GFS models are much different for the snowfall locations and accumulations.   At this point I am leaning more towards the GFS since they have been a little more consistent which ultimately means a line of snow can be expected anywhere north and west of Highway 151 in Wisconsin.   Again the most accumulations looks to be in the Marathon County area. 

    Both models will have a new forecast out in a few hours --- until then keep those shovels handy!

Wind Reports from Tuesday --- Snowfall for Today, this Weekend

    Tuesday, November 29th, much of Wisconsin (especially Southeastern Wisconsin) experience some very strong wind associated with a storm system situated in the Ohio River Valley.   Peak gusts in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha were all above 50 mph!  A wind advisory was issued for most of SE Wisconsin with the tight pressure gradient and lakeshore communities were hit the hardest.  No damage has been confirmed from these winds.

    It looks like most of Wisconsin will get its first snowfall of the season this week and weekend.  Thursday night and into Friday parts of northern Wisconsin including Wausau, Stevens Point, and Green Bay could all see anywhere from a trace to a few inches of snow.  The southern tier of the state will only experience a few flurries or snow showers ---the biggest reason is lack of moisture!  High pressure will settle in nicely and give us a great day on Friday but this weekends storm could give us a better chance of snow.  This storm system will be significant as portions of Wisconsin, anywhere north and west of highway 151 could see accumulating snow.   Green Bay, Fox Valley, and parts of Madison could see 2”-4” out of this system but the Milwaukee Metro could see up to an inch or two of snow where they will see rain to start.  By Saturday night all the rain will switch over to snow and places like Wausau, Eau Claire, Rhinelander, La Crosse, and Iron Mountain could see near 6” of snow out of this system.  Since it is still a few days out those numbers are still well up in the air and we’ll have a much better idea come Friday and early Saturday. 

    Make sure to get those shovels ready, snow blower’s serviced, and your tires chained because we could have a fun weekend on our hands!