Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Forecasting for Opening Day of deer hunting can get you hurt!


    There are a number of reasons why I chose to get in the meteorology profession: challenge, change, presentation, and just the overall love of weather.  But one of the harder parts of weather is trying to match up a good forecast for friends and family when an important event is coming up!!  No, I’m not talking about Thanksgiving or Christmas, how about Opening Day of Deer Hunting in Wisconsin?!  Every year (or almost) I head up to Athelstane, WI for a great weekend of hunting, food, and hospitality.  I have one job at Buck Camp and that is making sure we have good weather.  Is this the year I end up sleeping outside?

    Last year most of Wisconsin had outstanding conditions for deer hunting as we had a few inches of snow on the ground in extreme northwestern Wisconsin near Ashland and Superior.  The rest of the state saw temperatures in the 30s (far north), 40s (central and south), and even a few 50s in southeastern Wisconsin.  It was really an ideal day to be out and enjoying one of the best days of the year if you are a avid hunter.  I can remember each year heading up to Athelstane and every year being a little different weather wise.  Some years we had snow on the ground and could see our breath where other years I had to start removing layers half way out to my deer stand. But this years forecast looks MUCH different then last years.  So different that if I had my Dad, my Uncles,  one of my cousins, or “the President” (who love to hunt) asking me on the way up to Deer Camp what the weather was going to be like for this weekend, I might as well have them drop me off on the side of the road!

    Since we have established our weekends weather will suck and before I get into that yucky preliminary forecast, we must ask what would be optimal weather conditions for opening day of deer hunting?

    -Snow on the ground (only a few inches)
    -A light wind
    -Cooler temperatures BUT not fridge (20s-30s)

    It is highly unlikely we see any combination of these conditions this weekend. This weekends forecast as of now is setting up for a big storm as a vigorous area of low pressure is headed in our direction and we could have a complete washout for the weekends hunt.  Associated with this storm we could see very strong winds, heavy rain, and even some of that white stuff. Again, by all calculations it will be rain but there is a STILL that small chance the area of low pressure stays more south and that would mean good news for northern Wisconsin, more SNOW!  We’ll keep this forecast wide open for now as that gives me the best chance of staying on the good side of this years Buck Camp.



---Be Great, Chris!

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