“Stench of Short Days, Fridge Nights should still keep us Jolly”

    The delights of tripping over stinky boots, searching endlessly for foul jackets, and picking up the flashlight to let the dog out at 6 pm is upon us.  Welcome to Winter in the Midwest!  As November wraps up and December creeps in, we slowly forget those warm, mild summer nights and begin to see another asinine Winter ---whom will mock all winter apparel and equipment we may have. 

    What do you think of when we say the word Winter?  Most of us might think of snow; maybe shoveling or winter driving.  Others may see cold weather; breath being seen or fingers turning purple as the family car is not starting.  For myself, the biggest thing I miss is lack of sunlight and long, mild nights.  How depressing does it get when you go to work/school in the dark and you return from work/school in the dark?  What about the fact that the temperature is about the same when you get home at night then it was when you left that morning?!
   
    Beginning on December 1st, sunrise is at 7:04 am and sunset is around 4:18 pm ---that gives us a total of 9 hours and 14 minutes of sunlight!!!  I do complain about this BUT how about living in Barrow, AK right now?  A week ago (November 18th) they saw the last flicker of sunlight until January 23rd!  Imagine going two months without seeing any sunlight, sunrise, or sunset?!  On top of that their average temperatures in December are below zero and it only gets worse in January and early February.  Maybe that is why there are only 4,000 people that live there, most of them not by choice.

    What about Yakutsk, Russia, located about 300 miles south of the Arctic Circle, is the coldest city in the world.  It inhabits around 200,000 crazy, stubborn people who do not want to leave their city in search of warmer pastures.  Instead they choose to deal with temperatures that get so cold that their advised not to wear sunglasses on certain days because the friggen sunglasses freeze to their cheeks!  Back in 2008, Yakutsk was in the news after a chain of burst pipes caused Artyk and Markha, two villages near Yakutsk, to lose heat for a number of days. The temperatures then were minus 50C. TV footage of the BIG FREEZE showed cliques of people huddled in bundles of blankets gathering round makeshift wood-fired stoves to keep from freezing to death.  How about those apples?

    In January, when we are complaining in our own rights about Winter, remember Barrow, AK has not seen light in months, and Yakutsk gets to deal with average highs around -40 C!  Even though we think these short days, fridge nights are bad, perhaps here in the Midwest during Winter we should still stay jolly!!!

Cool, Cloudy Conditions for Cyber Monday---Storm Brewing for Sunday!

 
     As we are approaching the peak of shopping for Christmas, here in Wisconsin we are yet to see any significant snowfalls or winter weather yet.   Cyber Monday will not be any different!  If you are heading out and about for this Cyber Monday (haha), online shopping or online gifting, conditions look around average for this time of the year.  Highs will remain in the upper 30s today with primarily cloudy conditions.  The main weather maker is an area of high pressure centralized over much of the Midwest which will give us some fair conditions but will quickly move out of the area today as a storm quickly develops to our southeast.  This will give us a chance of some rain tomorrow along with extremely windy conditions.  Temperatures tomorrow will be a tad bit warmer with highs in the lower 40s but winds from the NNE could exceed 40 mph.

    Keep an eye out next Sunday as Wisconsin could see their first significant snow of the season!!!  How much snow, when and where will the storm strike?  I'll talk about that in my next blog entry on Wednesday!

Be Great, Chris!

Rare Tornadoes in Wisconsin--- Nov 22nd 2010

Wisconsin does not see Tornadoes very often in November but last year this proved to be incorrect.  Four tornadoes struck the southeastern Wisconsin area and caused significant damage in Walworth and Racine counties.  It all developed under extremely unusual circumstances as warm moist air creep-ed up to the north featuring 60s in Wisconsin and even some 70s near the border of Wisconsin and Illinois.  This was all packed with a very strong jet stream aloft, a storm system, and a winter-like cold front.  No fatalities were reported thankfully but there was damage reported in both counties from the EF1 tornadoes. 

Once the storm system moved away temperatures dropped off significantly from 60s and 70s on Monday down to 20s for lows on Tuesday morning.  In Wisconsin ANYTHING can happen!

Opening Weekend of Hunting: Your Weekend Weather Report

                                                                 GFS Model for Storm

                                                            NAM Model for Storm

One of the best seasons of the year, Saturday marks the opening of gun hunting for whitetail deer in Wisconsin.  This years forecast was looking quite gloomy earlier this week but things are looking a little better for this weekend.  Tomorrow we have a warm front approaching us from the west that’ll bring us southwesterly winds to help warm us up back into the 40s across the state.  But the storm system I mentioned earlier on this week will be threatening the Badger State this weekend beginning on Saturday in the western part of the state and Saturday night in northeastern sections of Wisconsin.  The best chance of accumulating snow will be in northwestern and north central areas where we could see anywhere from 3-6”. 

    My forecast for the Crivitz (Green Bay) area this weekend where I’ll be heading is:

    Friday: Partly Cloudy Skies and much warmer as that warm front moves into NE Wisconsin.  Highs will be reaching into the mid to upper 40s with a strong southwesterly wind that will gust at times to 30 mph.  If you have some last second preparations in the woods, it should be a gorgeous day to do so!

    Friday Night/Saturday Early Morning Hunt: Becoming Cloudy after midnight as our dynamic storm system begins to develop out towards the Rockies and swing on our way.  Lows will drop off rapidly into the low 20s, and some spots will get down into the upper teens.  Make sure to dress warm but a pancho or rain coat will not be needed YET!

    Saturday: Rain will begin to develop in the afternoon and eventually will switch over to snow as the storm system moves off towards the NE.  I highly recommend bringing rain gear out with you for the afternoon, it will be CHILLY!  Highs will reach the low 40s and will begin to drop by the afternoon.

    Saturday Night: Eventually all rain will switch to snow, some areas could see accumulating snow depending on how far east and south the storm system tracks.  Lows will be in the upper 20s.

    Sunday:  Some lingering snow showers in the early morning but that system will speed on off and we’ll see clearing by mid morning and ultimately sunshine by the late morning and afternoon hours.  Highs in the mid to upper 30s. 

    Good news for you hunters---If you’ll be hunting anywhere north of Highway 29 this season you should see some snow by Sunday morning for your hunt.  That should get those deer moving.  GOOD LUCK AND BE SAFE!!!

---Be Great, CHRIS!

Forecasting for Opening Day of deer hunting can get you hurt!

    There are a number of reasons why I chose to get in the meteorology profession: challenge, change, presentation, and just the overall love of weather.  But one of the harder parts of weather is trying to match up a good forecast for friends and family when an important event is coming up!!  No, I’m not talking about Thanksgiving or Christmas, how about Opening Day of Deer Hunting in Wisconsin?!  Every year (or almost) I head up to Athelstane, WI for a great weekend of hunting, food, and hospitality.  I have one job at Buck Camp and that is making sure we have good weather.  Is this the year I end up sleeping outside?

    Last year most of Wisconsin had outstanding conditions for deer hunting as we had a few inches of snow on the ground in extreme northwestern Wisconsin near Ashland and Superior.  The rest of the state saw temperatures in the 30s (far north), 40s (central and south), and even a few 50s in southeastern Wisconsin.  It was really an ideal day to be out and enjoying one of the best days of the year if you are a avid hunter.  I can remember each year heading up to Athelstane and every year being a little different weather wise.  Some years we had snow on the ground and could see our breath where other years I had to start removing layers half way out to my deer stand. But this years forecast looks MUCH different then last years.  So different that if I had my Dad, my Uncles,  one of my cousins, or “the President” (who love to hunt) asking me on the way up to Deer Camp what the weather was going to be like for this weekend, I might as well have them drop me off on the side of the road!

    Since we have established our weekends weather will suck and before I get into that yucky preliminary forecast, we must ask what would be optimal weather conditions for opening day of deer hunting?

    -Snow on the ground (only a few inches)
    -A light wind
    -Cooler temperatures BUT not fridge (20s-30s)

    It is highly unlikely we see any combination of these conditions this weekend. This weekends forecast as of now is setting up for a big storm as a vigorous area of low pressure is headed in our direction and we could have a complete washout for the weekends hunt.  Associated with this storm we could see very strong winds, heavy rain, and even some of that white stuff. Again, by all calculations it will be rain but there is a STILL that small chance the area of low pressure stays more south and that would mean good news for northern Wisconsin, more SNOW!  We’ll keep this forecast wide open for now as that gives me the best chance of staying on the good side of this years Buck Camp.



---Be Great, Chris!

Forecast for Southeastern Wisconsin

Hold on to your hat today!   We'll see a very gusty southwesterly wind component associated with a low pressure system heading off to our north, there is a potential to see a Wind Advisory posted for Wisconsin with gusts exceeding 40 mph.  A cold front will pass through the Milwaukee area later on today making things very chilly for the next few days.  Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s especially to the north while lows should stay in the mid to upper 20s.  Our next chance of rain will be over the weekend as gun hunting season opens.  A warm front will speed on through from the west on Friday bringing along with it a strong low pressure system that will give us a very good chance of rain and depending on the tracking of the storm the northern parts of Wisconsin could see some snow out of this.  I'll be heading up to the Athelstane-Crivitz area over the weekend for some hunting and crossing my fingers for some snow!

--Be Great, Chris!

Maybe Winter Really Isn't that Bad?

        Looking back at this warm Summer, I cam remember three things distinctly!  One, where did the summer go?  Second, I was tired of seeing my thermostat at 93 F! Third, where is Winter? Yes I may be stubborn and cheap but taking out my only air conditioner and exchanging it for cooler weather come Fall/Winter is my favorite time of the year.  It makes Wisconsin one of the best places in the United States to live for so many reasons, right?   Well some people may beg to differ!

    Wisconsin truly is unique in its landscape, seasons, and weather.  We are lucky enough to be provided with a vast amount of seasonal patterns and we are getting into many peoples’ favorite (sarcasm), WINTER!  Last year, it was a busy season for snow as Milwaukee and Chicago were pulverized with one of the worst blizzards on record as we come to know it by the “Groundhog’s Day Blizzard”.  Green Bay had three snowstorms of > 12” and we know about the rest of Wisconsin.  Myself, after that huge Groundhog’s Day blizzard, was FOR SURE never ever wanting Winter again but here I am patiently awaiting to throw a few snowballs and watch my dog learn how to eat snow.

    But without Winter, wouldn’t weather and your lives in general be boring?  Imagine Christmas morning without the snow, or not running around obnoxiously outside during the first snowflakes of the season, or as a kid after a big snowstorm awaiting the name of your school to be announced closed!  Ask people in Seattle, London, or even San Diego if they enjoy their weather?  Where would all our cold season traditions and hobbies go?  Would we like hunting in shorts, capsized ice shanty‘s, snowmen without snow, or no faint snowmobile noises in the distance?  What would Lambeau Field and tailgating be without the cold?  Just another stadium in the NFL.

    So this season, as we approach yet another Winter and we begin to dodge other vehicles on the road during our first snowfall, do not ask where Summer is, just realize----HEY, Winter really isn’t that bad!

----Be Great, Chris!
  

You Called That A Storm? --- Great Lakes Storm of November 1913

If you remember this storm system, MAN you're old!  The Great Lakes Storm of 1913 went down as one of the worst U.S. winter storms on record occurring in early November.  This freakish storm was caused by a convergence of two storms over the warmer waters of Lake Superior that generated winds as high as 90 mph and 35 foot waves.  Later known as "The Storm" or "The White Hurricane", she unleashed a type of fury rarely seen on Earth with blinding rain, sleet, and finally snow which lasted in some spots 18 hours (To put that in prospective a good snowstorm lasts 6, maybe 8 hours).   Also, famously this storm sunk five ships that were never recovered and seven other ships were sunk but eventually recovered after search.   When the storm finally let up on November 10th, the cleanup was unspeakable with snow totals reaching > 24", millions of dollars in damage, and around 250 were killed.

What can we do to prepare ourselves for a once in a century type storm like that?

---Be Great, Chris!

Snow Totals in NE Wisconsin

Snow totals from yesterdays snowstorm.  I cannot believe it is November already!  According to the National Weather Service in Green Bay, "Power outages were reported in Oneida, Marathon, Langlade, Waupaca and Shawano counties as the wet snow caused tree limbs to break.  At the height of the storm, over 15,000 customers were without power.  Hundreds of vehicle accidents occurred across the area."

---Be Great, Chris!

First Snowstorm of the Year

For some of us, winter has finally arrived!  Portions of central and northeastern Wisconsin were blanketed with their first snowfall of the season and it came with a price ----SHOVELING!  Portions of Langlade County in Northeastern Wisconsin were hit with over a foot of snow.  Antigo had reports of 14" of snow, Pearson received nearly 8.5", and Stevens Point had as much as 5" of snow fall in their area.  A more exact amount of snow will be sent out when storm reports are sent in as the morning progresses.  Southern Wisconsin was not hit as hard, areas around Madison (Columbia, Western Dane, and Dodge Counties) all reported around 1-3" of snow.  The Milwaukee metro was hit strictly with rain and a fresh blast of cool air off the lake.  

Here are the snowfall totals from Southern Wisconsin --- http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=75056&source=0

The weekend looks gorgeous as a warm front approaches us from the west bringing us highs Saturday in the 50's under mostly sunny skies and more rain headed our way on Sunday with highs around 60!

---Be Great, Chris!

NE Wisconsin Snow Update

Northeastern Wisconsin is experiencing their first snowfall of the season!  GFS snowfall model suggesting 1-3" at most while the NAM is advising 3-6" of snow.  Evidently since we are seeing snowfall already this morning the snow totals will be much higher so I'm in agreement with the NAM on snowfall totals.  Keeping in mind it is very difficult to forecast snow totals so early in the year because of temperatures and warm ground but the tracking of this storm looks to bring the first significant snowfall to NE Wisconsin.  
The link to the NAM snowfall total model http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRB

Green Bay Area Weather

The forecast is still somewhat far off with this system, but Green bay could be under the gun for potential snowfall depending on the track of this low pressure system.  If this system dips to the south, strengthens, or additional cold air is funneled we could see accumulating snow.  As of right now, the models are not consistent enough for placement of the low so keeping an eye on the weather is key.

NWS update (MKE area)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mkx

Week of November 7th Weather

Good Evening,

What a wild few weeks of weather!  We've seen the same format of Fall type weather the past few weeks which include a warm front, a day of rain, a cold front, and a cooling trend before the weekend turns nice.  This week won't be much different.   Although today in Milwaukee we only reached 57 degrees because of clouds that lingered into the afternoon, we still did see an overall nice day.  Well, things will be changing significantly!  The National Weather Service has just issued a Winter Storm Watch for north and western parts of Wisconsin with as much as 6" of snow possible.  Milwaukee will not see that kind of winter weather yet, but we are likely to see abundant rain fall with as much as 2-3" of rain in some locations heading into Monday night, all of Tuesday, and portions of early Wednesday.  A cold front will push across Wisconsin dropping temperatures into the low 40's midday and around 30 Wednesday night.  Thursday and Friday, temperatures will be in the upper 40's before another warm-up returns on Sunday with highs around 60 degrees! 

Have a great week!

Chris